Ferozepur will be a litmus test for both – Congress and SAD
HARISH MONGA
Located at the international border with Pakistan, Ferozepur Parliamentary seat election is set to be a litmus test for both Congress and SAD-BJP alliance, the main traditional political adversaries in Punjab.
Though the nomination process is yet to start as the elections in Punjab are going to be held in the last phase on May 19, only some smaller parties have so far have declared the names of their candidates. Punjab Democratic Alliance (PDA) has announced its CPI candidate – Comrade Hans Raj Golden and Sukhdev Singh Bhullar of Bharti Lok Dal, an activist fighting for the Chit Fund victims. The main ones including Congress, SAD-BJP, AAP are still in process of finalising the names their candidates. Though Independent candidate hardly play any role as either they are covering candidates or just for the sake of getting themselves highlighted in the political circles and local district administration.
One of the main factors which will work in Ferozepur constituency is community vote bank of Rai Sikh and Kamboj among who the turncoat Ghubaya – two-time MP from Ferozepur and MLA from Jalalabad Assembly constituency, could be a favourite. He has already started campaigning in border area villages of Jalalabad which is now part of Fazilka district. Earlier it was under jurisdiction of Ferozepur district.
Ghubaya had resigned from SAD and joined the Congress just on March 5, ahead of Lok Sabha 2019 elections.
It is being speculated that Ghubaya quit after getting the green signal from the Congress high command to fight Lok Sabha polls on Congress ticket. Changing over to Congress was was not surprising as it had become well known that he had been constantly ignored by SAD leadership for the last two years. Meanwhile, his son joined Congress before 2017 Assembly elections. He was given the party ticket and was elected as MLA from Fazilka Assembly constituency.
It is, however, being observed that it will not be an easy task for Ghubaya to emerge winner in case he is fielded by Congress for Lok Sabha election as his own Rai Sikh community is a divided house. Confusion reigns over support to either Ghubaya or Congress minister Rana Sodhi among groups in the community. Not only this, the Congress leaders from Rana Sodhi camp have indirectly conveyed their opposition to his prospective candidature in a recent press conference. They urged the Congress high command to think over before announcement of the party candidate who they emphasised must have three years standing in the party. This could be a stumbling block for Ghubaya as he has joined the party recently.
Other claimants of the Congress ticket from Ferozepur seat include Hans Raj Jossan, Dr.Mohinder Rinwa, Gurbhej Singh Tibbi. The issue being hotly talked about is whether they and other Congress MLAs in Ferozepur Rural, Ferozepur Urban and Fazilka, will unitedly extend support to Ghubaya if he is given the party ticket. He has though assured of his son and Fazilka MLA.
Added here, SAD is likely to field an Akali heavyweight from here. The name of SAD president Sukhbir Badal is being speculated about. And there may be reason for that as Sukhbir's brother-in-law Bikram Singh Majithia has already organised two meetings in this constituency seeking grassroot level feedback before announcement of the party candidate.
As for the statistics, there are 15,18,962 – 8,06,445 male, 7,12,499 female and 18 transgender votes in 9 Assembly segments with 71.40 polling percentage in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Sunil Jakhar of Congress had polled 4,56,401 votes then, Sher Singh Ghubaya of SAD 4,87,932, Ram Kumar Prajapat of BSP 22,274 and Sat Pal Kamboj of AAP 1,13,412. Ghubaya had won in multi-cornered contest. The total votes polled were 10,97,727 with 7685 as NOTA votes and 236 were invalid votes.
So far as the Badal family is concerned, none of the family members has contested LS polls since 1998. However, Zora Singh Mann a close associate of the family had won from SAD seat in 1998 and 1999 and Sher Singh Ghubaya in 2009 and in 2014 with a margin of only 31420 votes defeating Sunil Kumar Jakhar. In 1999, the elections were held again when the 12th Lok Sabha formed under Attal Bihari Vajpayee could survive only for 313 days. However, Sukhbir Badal had contested from Jalalabad when the seat was vacated for bye election on elevation of Ghubaya as MP in 2014. Sukhbir Badal again contested and won the Assembly seat from Jalalabad in 2017.
MPs of Ferozepur at a glance since 1952:
1952 Bahadur Sigh, Lal Singh SAD Ferozepur, Ludhiana
1957 Iqbal Singh IND
1962 Iqbal Singh IND
1967 Gurcharan Singh NS Wala IND
1967 Sohan Singh Bassi SAD
1971 Mohinder Singh Gill SAD
1977 Mohinder Singh Sayanwala SAD
1980 Balram Jakhar IND
1984 Gurdial Singh Dhillon IND
1989 Dhian Singh Independent
1996 Mohan Singh Phalianwwala BSP
1998 Zora Singh Maan SAD
1999 Zora Singh Maan SAD
2004 Zora Singh Mann SAD
2014 Sher Singh Ghubaya SAD
2019 Sher Singh Ghubaya SAD
Since 1952, SAD holds the seat for 8 times in 1952, 1967, 1971, 1977 and continuously five terms in 1998, 19999, 2014 and 2019. Congress could not get hold of this seat since 1989 onwards.
There had been tough contest between the Congress and SAD in the past and this time, it looks to be a close tie between the two parties.
However, this Aam Aadmi Party does not seem to be active in Ferozepur – neither the old candidate of Lok Sabha elections who got more than one lac votes, nor the Assembly elections candidates who could get standing positions for the minimum required votes.
Even if we see the last elections results, the AAP vote by Satnam Pal Kamboj of 1,13,412 of the community will be the deciding factor for which Ghubaya is the right claimant in case there is the consensus of all the Congress leaders in the constituency. For SAD, all leaders will unite only if a candidate from Badal’s family contest the elections otherwise there will be a lip sympathy only and the Congress will win this seat easily and break the SAD-hold record in this constituency.
Though it is too early to comment as none of the party has announced its candidate and speculations could prove otherwise but one thing is sure that this time, the poll equations will definitely be different and interesting as it will be a litmus test for the major political parties.