Delhi AAP’s loss may trigger churning in Punjab politics....by Dr. Pramod Kumar

Chandigarh: The AAP is facing an existential crisis. The ripple effect of this is being felt in Punjab. Showcasing its 'Delhi Model' of Urban governance in Punjab, it portrayed itself as the party of change, bereft of any identity politics, and distanced itself from Punjab-specific issues, such as the agrarian crisis, national security and communal harmony.

The fact that the 'Delhi Model',is  largely confined to Urban governance, and, as such outcompeted in the Delhi Assembly Elections, even as its outcome in Punjab is an indisputable writing on the wall.

The results have demonstrated that there were serious challenges for the AAP while an opportunity appeared for the traditional political parties to reclaim their (lost) political space.

Why is there an existential crisis for AAP?

The grammar of politics introduced by the AAP sounded new and fresh with an indigenized menu card even or it branded itself as a party for change. In other words, it was a brand of Pop-Corn Politics which gave instant taste and quick dividends.

AAP branded itself as a paternalistic caretaker party through promises like free education, free medical treatment, free electricity upto 300 units, and Rs.1000/- monthly stipend to women above 18 years, etc. It also reformulated the discourse on jobs with a call to the youth to become ‘job providers’ and not ‘job seekers’. 

That, incidentally, appeared as another dimension of the new orthodoxy of globalization, which entails the speed of instant cash transfers and the speed of investments.Similarly, the speed with which the television, internet, and social media spread (mis) information is commensurate with the 'moralities' of the market.

The Pop-Corn Politics used speed to kill deliberative, reflective and dialogical time for critical analysis and nurtured reactive exchanges. This kind of politics was never meant to have longevity as it was not located in any ideology. 

No doubt, it attempts to garnish its politics with elements of ideology through 'item numbers', such as reciting Hanuman Chalisa to be on the right side of majoritarian politics.

Arvind Kejriwal unequivocally said, "I am Kattar Bhakat (hardcore disciple) of Lord Hanuman, but they allege that I am anti-Hindu". To provide content, it also promised a stipend for the Pujaris of the temples and a free tirath yatra. AAP has not been able to deliver what it promised in the name of political change. For Punjab, the implication has been that AAP was no different from the traditional parties, and, as such,  a feeling of betrayal has already set in among the people. The AAP government would now have to deliver in the real sense and not limit itself to fancy marketing ideas. 

The overall approach has been to use a cocktail of doles and promises containing something for everyone’s taste. So, we have in elections a sort of Menu-festo rather than Manifesto.

There is a menu card for the farmers, traders, students, Dalits, industrialists, women, etc., to cater to everyone’s taste replacing the Manifesto which is, by definition a declaration of the principles, policies, intentions and, of course, ideological commitment of the political party. The credit for this invention goes to AAP.

It is a reinforcement of the thought that it is the voters’ perception, which constitutes reality. It does not matter who is the leader and what he believes in. What mattered: how he was perceived by the voters? The focus is to market that image of a leader which the voters want the most. There is a challenge to revisit ‘Delhi Model of Urban Governance’ and redefine the meaning of change in the context of the specificities of Punjab. 

The mobilisations based on Catch-all categories to maximise votes has blurred religio – caste, class and ethnicity fault lines.  The life of this new way of doing politics is short-lived.

It is largely based on building perception by reaching out to the footloose voters looking to move away from the status quo, ideologically unbound and pragmatic floating votes seeking doles, and new young voters in communication with the anarchist Social media. It certainly unnerved the traditional political parties and leaders struggling to overcome the massive trust deficit against the politicians and the politics per se. 

Political Churning

The political churning is in the offing. It would be a challenge for AAP to maintain a stable government and deliver on its promises in the remaining two years of its tenure.

"Will AAP go for a leadership change in Punjab or continue with the present arrangement and evolve systems to deliver in Punjab? That is a moot question. The State is likely to undergo different 'political engineering' experiments, including replication of the 'politics in Maharashtra'. The first challenge for the AAP is to keep party consolidated as political leaders are footloose and the political parties have no ideological boundaries except power. It is a major task to keep a large number of the AAP legislatures i.e. 92 in a house of 117 satisfied. Another challenge is to broaden the scope of their innovation of Pop-Corn Politics to real State specific politics. 

It will give a major fillip to all the political parties, leading to uncertainty in the State. There is already a reassertion of radical politics in Punjab, as is evident from the victory of the radical preacher Amritpal from Khadoor Sahib, and that of Sarbjit Singh, the son of an assassin of the former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. These radical leaders as a polarising factor, shall, no doubt, lead to insecurity and fear amongst the non-Sikhs as well as a section of moderate Sikhs.

Interestingly, this polarisation may not act as a push factor for, particularly, the Hindus and the Dalits towards the BJP because it is culturally ingrained that the Sikhs are the saviours of the Hindus.This may work to the advantage of the Akali Dal, as many Hindus may seek protection from the Akalis, who are well entrenched in every village.

A large section of the Sikh youth is more inclined towards progressive leadership, like Sukhbir Singh Badal, rather than a leader like Amritpal propagating retrogressive social reforms. In a nutshell, Amritpal’s mascot as a panthic leader or as a moderate has a very remote chance of capturing people’s imagination.

There is an opportunity for the Congress party to rejuvenate its organisation and formulate a development agenda learning lessons from the shortcomings of the Congress regime led by Capt. Amarinder Singh. For the Akali Dal there is an opportunity and challenge also to set their house in order and as a Sikh Centric party build bridges with the other communities.

The lesson from the past elections is that the BJP on its own cannot emerge as a dominant force and the SAD without building alliance with the BJP may not be in the reckoning in Punjab.

February 13, 2025