Elections in Punjab are just seven months away and at test would be the reputation and acceptability of three leaders — Akali Dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal, Punjab Congress chief Capt Amarinder Singh and Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal. Who will prove his mettle?
The outcome of polls in Punjab generally favours the Opposition, with the government of the day beginning to lose relevance six months before the D-day. Therefore, there is a common perception that it may not be easy for the ruling Akali Dal — which has been in power for the past nine years — to pull through in 2017. People feel Kejriwal’s AAP has found acceptability among the masses and, thus, stands a fair chance of winning the elections.
While poll pundits are writing off Sukhbir on account of strong anti-incumbency sentiment against his establishment and feel that muscle and money power may still not help his party win the elections, the Amarinder-led Congress is being seen as a party that could secure the third position.
I, however, have my strong reservations. I feel this election, too, will be fought between the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP combine, with AAP not fairing as is being predicted. As time passes, AAP will inevitably realise how different politics in Punjab are compared to Delhi.
Today, I would like to focus on the strengths and weaknesses of these three leaders. While analysing the 2012 elections, I had made my point clear to the readers: Not to rule out the ruling Akali Dal-BJP combine. This time, my advice would be: Don’t rule out Capt Amarinder!
From Raja to saviour of the Congress in Punjab in 2002, Capt Amarinder has come a long way. He changed the course of Punjab politics after winning the 2002 polls and proving that he was capable of matching the rhetoric of the Badals. During my frequent interactions with Capt Amarinder in 2002-3, I would find him a simpleton who could not hold anything to himself. This trait is considered negative in politics.
Over years, however, the 74-year-old Maharaja of Patiala has learnt his lessons the hard way and is now a tad more conscious of those who strut around him. The Congress high command succumbing to his pressures and again anointing him the Punjab Congress chief in the run up to the polls, is a testimony of how important the Captain is for his party. It’s actually his stature and mass appeal that enabled him to have the better of the political odds, and regain control over the party.
The former Chief Minister has a penchant for quick decision-making, likes to talk straight, and his drinks neat. Wiser by the mistakes of the past, he has covered a lot of ground. Those who had written him off after he lost power in 2007, have again begun to count on him. The Maharaja of yesterday is no more the same simple-hearted and trusting leader. He’s changed forever, and for the better — at least in politics.
Next is Sukhbir Singh Badal. He’s a fighter who never likes to give up. If Amarinder can be credited with changing the course of Punjab politics, it is Sukhbir who pulled Akali politics out of the narrow regional groove, and put it on the national political firmament. In 2007, it was he who dusted the Akali Dal out of inertia, charged up demoralised cadres and raised a fighting force to take on the Congress. And in 2012, but for Sukhbir and his ability to plan, plot and maneuver, his party would never have got a successive second term. He is clear, decisive, can set futuristic goals; marshal manpower and resources, fix responsibility, and get objectives achieved. Fortunately for him, there is no dissidence in his party as there is in the Congress.
Sukhbir has several qualities of being a strong leader but many who know him fail to understand why there is so much negativity around him. Is it because of him or the people surrounding him and making hay in his name? I feel some officers and associates working with Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal watch 80 per cent interest of the master, and maybe, 20 per cent of their own interests. The same could be reverse in the case of the heir-apparent.
The third major force is Arvind Kejriwal who has thrived on politics of dissent, revolt and then consolidation. I have had no interaction with him so far and my knowledge is based on what I have observed over time and heard from his colleagues. After showing several dissident leaders like Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan the door, the Delhi Chief Minister has consolidated his position and nobody has the guts to question his authority and decision-making. In fact, there’s no one who would like to question him today.
Under his leadership, AAP did well in Delhi and since then, is being considered a major force to reckon with in Punjab politics, especially after it won four seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. The politics in this border state, however, is not as simple as it was in Delhi, for the politics here is more religion-oriented and there are different reasons why people vote in Punjab for one party or another.
After the arrest of many of AAP MLAs, registration of FIRs for hurting religious sentiments in Punjab and also several defamation cases against him and party members, they may have realised that it is hard to stick to principles and ideologies when it comes to realpolitik, and still survive in politics! While they promised to rule by propriety, they have been frequently resorting to justify their actions by precedence.
Despite clear sentiments in favour of AAP in Punjab today, it would not be easy for Kejriwal and his party to finally translate sentiments into votes. Poll pundits are euphoric about AAP’s prospects in the coming elections, I am not.
md@dailyworld.in
( Courtesy Daily World )
(First Published in Daily World , July 11,2016 )
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Manish Tiwari, Editor-in-chief, Daily World
md@dailyworld.in
Phone No. : +91-8591859120
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